Jobless Recovery

Are we heading to a jobless recovery? From Krugman to Joe Biden everybody thinks the same. Actually the last job report was a scary and it overturned all the predictions and met all threshold. But a point to remember is, job market is a trailing economic indicator, it would take some time to stabilize the condition. Based on previous recessions 1981-82, 1991-92 and 2001-2002, when economy turning around it would start sending mixed signals.

The recovery may not be uniform as we like, because the medications prescribed for economy would start show it signs at different times from different places. For example, investors always positive thinkers since they buy in all from Fed reserve and treasury's assessments and start buying stocks hence sock markets going north but employers are causally optimistic about future business hence we are seeing a lousy unemployment report. It is pool of people thinking differently and some sees half empty and some sees half full. But the truth is, we are not going to live like this forever, people have to come out and start buying stuff, economy going to recover like the previous one. But timing is the matter now.

I think President Obama's stimulus plan going to be in full effect from September and gas price again easing and people come back from summer vacation, back to school, long term investment decisions all going to happen on late Summer. The first 6 months are not good for markets as well as any recovery since i think the 2nd half would be better for all of us. Good news is we already in 2nd half.

Source:

Comments

Anonymous said…
Are you kidding me? Listen do America a favor and stop the crap of telling everyone that the economy is strenghtening and that the jobless are going to find a job - sorry but this is really mean and even as a liberal blogger - you should know better than to give Obama your support on this -

Find me at JanSimpson on Twitter - I don't hide
6:45 PM
Subba Muthurangan said…
Thanks Jan for your comments. I'm just reflecting most of the economists consensus, 2nd half is for recovery. But i can understand your frustration and it is hell of a recession and tough one.
7:51 PM
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